Will the fresh aisles get fatter?

You’ll have seen the figures, or others like them: somewhere between 2.5m and 4m Brits say they have already used a GLP-1; another 7m+ people say they would use consider using them; in the US the numbers are approx. 15-20% of the population.

GLP-1s have become the fastest growing medication ever released, and that’s before pill formats arrive in late 2026/early 2027, bringing huge price reductions thanks to far cheaper manufacturing, packaging, distribution and storage.

Add in other new, emerging, technologies like neurostimulation and it really doesn’t seem crazy to think the numbers of users could double or triple in quite a short time-frame (somewhere between 65% and 70% of adults in the UK are currently classified as either overweight or living with obesity after all… more than 35m people).

The attraction is obvious for the individual, a virtually zero-effort ability to dramatically lose weight (why bother with expensive gyms, the grind of dieting or the boredom of slow and steady change). And from a government perspective: reduce obesity and see positive knock-on effects in Type-2 diabetes, heart disease a bunch of cancers, there would be less arthritis, fewer joint replacements, better sleep, less asthma etc etc etc. The cost reduction to NHS and society at large of reducing the health management of that group of people is significant.

But what does this mean for food brands?

The Grocer reported this week that changes in consumption among GLP1 users are already showing: there is a reduction in snacks, fast food and frozen ready meals consumption and an almost corresponding increase in the consumption of fresh fruit, veg and fish. These directional changes survive even after use of GLP1s stops (something also likely to change when pills allow consistent microdosing).

Extrapolate this out and it’s easy to see a really huge shift coming in the next three or four years and is likely to affect every aisle in every store.

Convenience stores may suffer more than anyone if the volume of food noise sees an even deeper reduction in snacking and impulse purchases.

What would your strategy be if you’re Mondelez, McDonald’s or SPAR?

What will ice cream manufacturers do to ensure demand? Is adding protein or reducing portion sizes really going to cut it?

If your entire business model rests on products at the ultra-processed end of the scale, how’re you reading the tea leaves? Are you standing firm, adapting or pivoting significantly?

Which brands will be like the old video rental store Blockbusters, staying rigidly to their existing model, trying to push back the tide before petering (or exploding) out of existence?

Which brands will be ‘Netflixers’ and have the vision and boldness to not just survive, but to thrive in a new food world?

And which will be Youtube (I realise the elasticity of this metaphor is close to snapping) – growing from nothing to global behemoth in 20 years? Do they already exist? Will the Bold Bean Co get vast swathes of shelf space, will Jason’s & Hovis swap volume places, will fresh aisles and the emerging brands within (ironically) get much fatter?

At the recent City Food & Drink Lecture, Professor Susan Jebb evoked memories of the smoky pubs, cars and planes of the last century and of how much of an anathema they are today.

Maybe in the future we’ll equally wonder how we ever let foods high in fat, salt and sugar or ultra-processed be eaten in such volume and shake our heads in sadness at those unable to leave them behind, like the 10% of people still smoking.

We have access to more data than ever, whether you drown in it, or swim, depends on how you interpret it.

One of my takes is that fresh food is on the march. It will take far greater floor space, minimal processing will be at the heart of many more of Britain’s biggest food brands, and fresh brands will be found rippled all the way through the majority of stores.